The first post tells why. It may be too little, but hopefully not too late.

Friday, September 4, 2015

Munich II: An exchange with a Chamberlain

My email to Senator Bob Casey, Democrat from Pennsylvania, his reply (generic, no doubt), and my response.


September 1, 2015

Dear Senator Casey,
During your tenure you undoubtedly made many important decisions. None will be as important and fateful as your decision on the Iran deal. Your approval of the deal would make you complicit in the murder and suffering of untold numbers of innocent people, which will inevitably follow Iran's getting its hands on the billions of its unfrozen actives [means "assets" - my Russian accent] and the credit it will be able to obtain due to that. The deal is the repeat of the 1938 Munich, with the difference that Hitler was not getting nuclear weapons due to that. Iran, a genocidal regime, openly promising extermination to the U.S. and Israel, is guaranteed to have a nuclear arsenal as the result of the deal. Please do not allow this nightmare to become reality.

Michael Vanyukov, PhD


On Sep 4, 2015, at 15:26, Senator Robert P. Casey, Jr. wrote::
Dear Dr. Vanyukov:
Thank you for taking the time to contact me regarding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and Iran’s nuclear program.  I appreciate hearing from you about this issue.
Since coming to the Senate in 2007, I have been at the forefront of legislative efforts to prevent the Iranian regime from acquiring a nuclear weapon. I have cosponsored numerous pieces of legislation to increase sanctions on the Iranian regime. It is clear that these tough, bipartisan sanctions brought the Iranian regime to the negotiating table in 2013. The P5+1 (the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Russia, and China, facilitated by the European Union) and Iran reached an interim agreement, called the Joint Plan of Action, on November 23, 2013.  
On February 27, 2015 Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee and Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey introduced S. 615, the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA) of 2015, which requires congressional review of any final nuclear agreement with Iran before the president can waive or lift sanctions imposed by Congress. I am a proud cosponsor of this bill. The compromise bill reported out of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee passed the Senate by 98-1 on May 7, 2015. The House passed the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act by a vote of 400 to 25 on May 19, 2015. INARA became Public Law 114-17 on May 22, 2015.  
After months of negotiations by the P5+1 and the European Union with Iran, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) regarding Iran’s nuclear program was agreed to on July 14, 2015. This deal builds on the foundations of the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA), agreed to in November of 2013, and the framework for this Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), announced on April 2, 2015.
After careful consideration and a thorough review of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and related documents, I have concluded that I will support the JCPOA. Of the realistic alternatives, I believe the JCPOA is the best option available to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. This was a difficult decision to make and I conducted a rigorous evaluation before coming to this determination. I consulted with constituents, outside experts, and Administration officials and received numerous intelligence briefings and read hundreds of pages of analysis and position papers. I have considered the impact of the JCPOA on our national security, the security of Israel and the Middle East and the grave question of war and the related issue of deterrence. My determination on this critical decision was the result of careful study and sober deliberation. I encourage you to read my statement in its entirety.
The JCPOA is the product of tough multiparty negotiations and places significant restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program for many years.  It limits the number of centrifuges that might be used to obtain nuclear material and restricts Iran’s ability to conduct enrichment research and development, among other things. The JCPOA also essentially blocks Iran’s plutonium pathway to a nuclear weapon by requiring the redesign of the Arak reactor and placing other limitations on plutonium activities. The robust monitoring and verification conducted by the IAEA, along with ongoing monitoring by the U.S. intelligence community will significantly lessen, if not eliminate, the likelihood that Iran could develop a nuclear weapon covertly. 
Under the JCPOA, Iran will not receive immediate relief from nuclear-related sanctions on Adoption Day of this agreement. Iran must implement 36 nuclear-related measures, verified by the IAEA, before multilateral, U.S. or EU sanctions are lifted. In addition, U.S. statutory sanctions on Iran for its support of terrorism, abuses of human rights and missile activities remain in full force and effect. Furthermore, I will continue to advance legislative efforts that prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, exporting terrorism in the region, and committing human rights atrocities. I have also been a leader in the Senate on efforts to aggressively counter Iran’s nefarious activities in the region, especially its support for terrorist proxies like Hezbollah and the Assad regime.
Implementation of this agreement should be reinforced by a clear and unwavering policy commitment by the United States that all options, including the use of military force, remain on the table if Iran violates its commitments not to pursue a nuclear weapon. The most effective strategy to fortify the JCPOA over time is to have in place a strong deterrent. I have and will continue to press President Obama and his Administration on this issue.
Israel’s security is of paramount concern when I am analyzing any policy impacting the Middle East. I have always staunchly supported efforts to promote Israel’s security and the important bilateral relationship between our two countries. The bond between our two countries has been and always will be unbreakable, and Israel’s security and that of the United States are inextricably linked. I will continue to support aid for Israel throughout the Senate appropriations process. The FY16 Senate Appropriations bill fully funds the $3.1 billion commitment to the United States-Israel Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). I greatly respect the views of those who have chosen to oppose this agreement and encourage them to continue the dialogue about the areas of convergence: ensuring Israel’s security, countering Iran’s support for terrorism and interference in regional affairs and working with our allies and partners to address the many conflicts that are causing instability in the Middle East.Preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon has been, and will continue to be, one of my top national security priorities. Thank you for sharing your thoughts with me. Please do not hesitate to contact me in the future about this or any other matter of importance to you.
For more information on this or other issues, I encourage you to visit my website, http://casey.senate.gov.  I hope you will find this online office a comprehensive resource to stay up-to-date on my work in Washington, request assistance from my office or share with me your thoughts on the issues that matter most to you and to Pennsylvania.
Bob Casey
United States Senator

P.S. If you would like to respond to this message, please use the contact form on my website: http://casey.senate.gov/contact/ 

September 4, 2015

Dear Senator Casey,
Thank you for your reply to my prior message. Unfortunately, it does not allay my concerns - on the contrary, it makes them much graver. Your endorsement of the JCPOA lends support to the disastrous agreement that hands Iran $150 bln, enabling terror and mass murder, which the genocidal regime commits itself and by its proxies non-stop, and opening an unhindered path to the nuclearization of both Iran and the rest of the region. Regrettably, you have ignored "the impact of the JCPOA on our national security, the security of Israel and the Middle East and the grave question of war and the related issue of deterrence." Your decision also disables the very law you sponsored, INARA, defective as it was, upturning and inverting by subterfuge the constitutional requirement for treaties, rendering the most important foreign policy act a minority decision. The JCPOA, a purely partisan act, will forever stain the Democratic party as a political organization with the blood of every future victim of Iran-supported terror and of the wars that this deal will beget.


Michael Vanyukov, Ph.D.


  1. http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/201195#.VgwMwC5VhBd

  2. As I see the Iranian deal it does appear at least temporarily frozen the Iranian nuclear program. Of course it hasn't eliminated it and just kicked the can down the road. The Obama administration was not capable of any military action and the sanctions although hurting Iran didn't seem capable of eliminating the program. There seems no good solution barring a regime change there which doesn't seem to be in the cards at this point. If we look at N. Korea it's clear that the sanctions ultimately don't work and the Americans will not bomb away the nuclear installations. Truthfully, I see no good outcome of all of this. We shall see if the Trump team which is making the right 'tough' noises will carry through.